Democracy and Development : Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990

List of Tables and Figures xi Acknowledgments xvii Introduction 1(1) Questions 1(6) Methods 7(3) Plan 10(3) Democracies and Dictatorships 13(65) Introduction 13(1) Democracy and Dictatorship 14(4) Operational Rules: Filling Offices by Contested Elections 18(5) ``Botswana'' and the Alternation Rule 23(5) Summary of Rules 28(2) Distinguishing among Democracies and Dictatorships 30(3) What We Did Not Include 33(3) Stability and Change of Political Regimes 36(15) Stability and Change of Political Leadership 51(3) Conclusion 54(24) Alternative Approaches 55(4) Classification of Political Regimes, 1950--1990 59(10) Basic Data about Regime Dynamics 69(8) The ``Short'' Data Base 77(1) Economic Development and Political Regimes 78(64) Introduction 78(1) Development and Democracy 78(10) Regime Dynamics 88(4) Level of Economic Development and Regime Dynamics 92(14) Economic Growth and Regime Dynamics 106(11) Income Inequality 117(5) Economic Factors in Context 122(6) Democratic Institutions and the Sustainability of Democracy 128(8) Conclusion 136(6) Dynamic Probit Model 137(2) Survival Models 139(3) Political Regimes and Economic Growth 142(45) Introduction 142(4) Political Regimes and Economic Growth 146(12) Poor and Wealthy Countries 158(18) Miracles and Disasters 176(2) Conclusion 178(9) Identification, Specification, and Robustness 179(5) Estimating the Contribution of Public Investment 184(3) Political Instability and Economic Growth 187(29) Introduction 187(2) Contemporaneous Political Upheavals 189(4) Past Instability 193(7) Expectations 200(11) Conclusion 211(5) Estimating the Impact of Expectations on Economic Performance 213(3) Political Regimes and Population 216(63) Total Income, Population, and Per Capita Income 216(2) Political Regimes and Population Growth 218(15) Explanations 233(23) Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth 256(8) Conclusion 264(5) Calculating Age Structure 265(4) Conclusion 269(10) Simulation 278(1) Appendix I: Selection Model 279(12) Selection as a Problem of Identification 279(2) Statistical Models of Selection 281(4) Statistical Models of Performance 285(2) Estimating Selection-Corrected Models of Performance 287(4) Appendix II: Codebook 291(10) References 301(12) Author Index 313(3) Country Index 316(4) Subject Index 320