Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry : Models for New Product And In-Market Forecasting And How to Use Them

List of Figures vii List of Tables xi List of Abbreviations xiii Acknowledgements xv Foreword xvii The Past and the Present 1(10) The Inaccuracy of Forecasting 1(2) Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry 3(2) The Current State: Influences Across Functions 5(3) The Time Horizon for the Forecast 8(1) In Summary 9(2) The Forecasting Process 11(24) Define the Forecast 11(3) Select a Forecast Method 14(6) Enable Analytic Insights 20(11) Present the Results 31(2) Final Considerations 33(2) New Product Forecasting 35(36) Tools and Methods 35(1) New Product Forecast Algorithm 35(1) Modelling the Market 36(13) Forecasting the Product 49(16) Converting Patients to Revenue 65(4) Final Considerations 69(2) In-Market Product Forecasting 71(30) In-Market Product Forecast Algorithm 71(1) Trending Historical Data 72(6) Applying the Effects of Ex-Trend Events 78(13) Converting Trended Data into Forecast Outputs 91(9) Final Considerations 100(1) Thoughts for the Future 101(6) Era of Revitalisation 101(1) Create Stories, Not Spreadsheets 102(2) Hire a Science Fiction Writer 104(1) Holistic Forecasting 104(3) Pharmaco -- A Forecasting Case Study 107(24) Suggested Answers 121(10) Appendix: Forecast Techniques 131(4) References and Further Reading 135(4) Index 139