Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach

For nearly 50 years, facing a static enemy, American intelligence analysis was based on a hierarchical decision-making process that oftentimes insulated analysts from criticism and interaction with the ultimate consumers of their product. In countering asymmetric threats and non-state adversaries, the model is simply outmoded. A flatter, horizontal, networked solution has proven much more effective in today’s world. In his second edition, Robert Clark—former CIA analyst and executive in the Intelligence Directorate—explains how a collaborative, target-centric process both attends to the needs of the customer and promotes more effective collection. Based on feedback from users, early chapters introduce the concept of model synthesis more gradually. Recent intelligence events—with the Iraqi WMD Commission Report at center stage—illustrate the importance of target-centric analysis. This revision also includes broader treatment of collection strategies, systems analysis, and analyst-customer interaction as well as more attention to denial and deception, and to both counterterrorism and counterintelligence analysis. This new edition contains updates of the practical information and day-to-day details from the previous book told as only an experienced intelligence hand could. Extensive descriptions of the art of target modeling and organizational analysis, as well as thoroughly detailed overviews of the quantitative and predictive techniques used in intelligence analysis make this book an essential tool for illuminating an often shadowy world. Table of Contents Preface Introduction Why We Fail What the Book Is About Summary Part 1. Introduction to Target-centric Analysis 1. The Intelligence Process The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-centric Process The Target Summary 2. Defining the Intelligence Problem Statement of the Problem The Problem Definition Product Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Problem Summary 3. An Analysis Approach to the Target The Concept of a Model Using Target Models for Analysis Counterintelligence Analysis and Response Target Model Combinations Summary 4. The Analytic Spectrum The Conflict Spectrum The Temporal Analysis Spectrum Indications and Warning Summary Part 2. Synthesis: Creating the Model 5. Overview of Models in Intelligence Creating a Conceptual Model Generic Models Combination Models Geographic Profiling Summary 6. Sources of Intelligence Information Existing Reports A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources The Dominant Intelligence Sources Specialized Technical Collection Summary 7. Populating the Model Evaluating Evidence Combining Evidence Structured Argumentation Alternative Target Models Summary 8. Collection Strategies The U.S. Collection Management Problem The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps Summary 9. Denial, Deception, and Signaling Denial and Deception Defense against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Higher-Level Denial and Deception Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D Summary Part 3. Predictive Analysis 10. Prediction Introduction to Prediction Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Predictive Approach Scenarios Indicators and the Role of Intelligence Summary 11. Predictive Techniques Extrapolation Projection Forecasting Summary 12. Shaping Forces Inertia Countervailing Forces Contamination Synergy Feedback Regulation Summary 13. Organizational Analysis Structure Function Process Summary 14. Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis Technology Assessment Systems Analysis Systems Simulation Summary 15. The Analyst and the Customer The Analyst The Customer Analyst-Customer Interaction Presenting Analysis Results Summary Appendix: A Tale of Two NIEs The Yugoslavia NIE The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE