Modeling Risk : Applying Monte Carlo Risk Simulation, Strategic Real Options, Stochastic Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization

We live in a world filled with risk and operate our businesses in an increasingly risky environment, as higher rewards only come with risks. Ignoring the element of risk when corporate strategy is being developed and tactical projects are being implemented is not an option. In addressing the issue of risk, this reliable resource provides a novel view of evaluating business decisions, projects, and strategies by taking into consideration a unified strategic portfolio analytical process. Page by page, the Second Edition of Modeling Risk offers a qualitative and quantitative description of risk, as well as introduces the methods used in identifying, quantifying, applying, predicting, valuing, hedging, diversifying, and managing risk. Divided into nine comprehensive parts, Modeling Risk, Second Edition includes many updated and new discussions, examples, exercises, and case studies. And while it s sophisticated enough for those well versed in risk analysis, this edition is also an appropriate guide for aspiring professionals as well as individuals at the graduate level of academic study. Besides providing you with a detailed description of such key concepts as risk and return, the fundamentals of model building, Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, time series and econometric analysis, optimization, and strategic real options analysis, this Second Edition contains important updates that reflect today s evolving environment, including: New case studies on market and credit risk as it applies to Basel II requirements, a billion dollar negotiation case study applying risk analytics for the state of California, U.S. military applications, IT security risk analysis, and project management risk analysis Many new hands on exercises for applying and modeling risk, forecasting, optimization, and business analytics The pitfalls of forecasting, with discussions of structural shifts, stochastic processes, nonlinearity, autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, and others Using stochastic optimizations, investment efficient frontiers, and superspeed simulation optimization techniques for project selection, portfolio optimization, investment allocation, and optimal pricing Realistic recommendations on how to take risk analysis into a company and obtain a higher level of adoption To help solidify your understanding of the topics discussed, Modeling Risk, Second Edition is supported by a companion DVD that contains innovative trial versions of the author s Risk Simulator and Real Options Super Lattice Solver software, as well as associated Excel spreadsheet models. The DVD also features free "getting started modeling" videos, additional case studies, and examples. With these tools at your disposal, you ll quickly discover how to quantify the risks associated with different types of business uncertainties. By combining expert advice and in depth business cases with cutting edge analysis software, Modeling Risk, Second Edition will help you better understand risk and confidently apply your knowledge of it to your most important business endeavors.