Scenarios for Success : Turning Insights in to Action

The era of clear dangers, simple problems and predict and control approaches is past. Many groups and organizations are searching for more effective means to survival, continued success and strategic renewal in a context clouded by competing interests, multiple worldviews and turbulent change. As cycles of fashion in managerial practices shorten, scenario thinking and planning has endured with continued, if not increased, relevance. After over 30 years of practice, it increasingly permeates the public, private and civic sectors. Why? As various chapters of this book emphasize, this continued interest stems not from the success in building a set of alternative futures or scenarios per se, nor from methodological coherence. Instead, success relates to the effectiveness of scenarios as purposeful interventions aimed at organizational sense making, innovation and development. Dr Angela Wilkinson, Director of Scenario Planning and Futures Research, James Martin Institute for Science and Civilisation