The Economics of Global Turbulence : The Advanced Capitalist Economies from Long Boom to Long Downturn, 1945-2005

List of Figures and Tables ix Acknowledgements xv Preface Dynamics of Turbulence xix Introduction The Puzzle of the Long Downturn 1(10) PART ONE The Trajectory of the Profit Rate 11(30) Supply-Side Explanations: A Critique 13(14) The `Contradictions of Keynesianism' 16(3) Conceptual Difficulties with the Supply-Side Thesis 19(5) Basic Evidence Against the Supply-Side Argument 24(1) From Criticism to an Alternative 25(2) Outline of an Alternative Explanation 27(14) Cost-Cutting Technology Leading to Over-Production 27(2) The Failure to Adjust 29(3) Fixed Capital, Uneven Development, and Downturn 32(5) The Postwar Economy from Boom to Stagnation 37(4) PART TWO The Long Upturn 41(56) The Pattern of the Postwar Boom 43(9) The US Economy: The Costs of Leadership 52(15) Towards Stagnation in the 1950s 53(8) Short-Term Recovery in the Early 1960s 61(6) Germany: The Export-Driven Boom 67(13) The 1950s `Miracle' 67(7) Contradictions of Internationalization, Late 1950s to Mid 1960s 74(6) Japan's `High-Speed Growth' 80(14) Accounting for the Long Boom 94(3) PART THREE From Boom to Downturn 97(46) Descent into Crisis 99(23) The United States: A Falling Profit Rate 101(16) The Boom's Final Phase in Japan 117(3) The Boom's Terminal Phase in Germany 120(2) The Crisis Spreads 122(21) The US Counter-Offensive and the World Money Crisis 122(7) The Crisis of the German Economy, 1969--73 129(4) Economic Crisis in Japan, 1970--73 133(8) The Deepening Crisis: A Summary 141(2) PART FOUR The Long Downturn 143(94) Why The Long Downturn? An Overview 145(19) Success and Failure of the Employers' Offensive 146(7) Why Did Over-Capacity and Over-Production Persist? 153(4) The Growth of Debt 157(2) The Deepening Downturn 159(5) The Failure of Keynesianism, 1973--79 164(23) The US Economy in the 1970s 165(6) Japan in the 1970s 171(8) Germany in the 1970s 179(5) Recession Once More 184(3) The US Counter-Offensive 187(50) From Reagan to Clinton: Transcending the Long Downturn? 194(22) Japan in the 1980s and 1990s: From Bubble to Bust and Beyond 216(13) Germany in the 1980s and 1990s: Monetarism in the Name of Exports 229(8) PART FIVE Prosperity Regained? 237(29) The Long Downturn and the `Secular Trend' 239(11) A New Long Upturn? 250(16) A New Age of US Growth and Hegemony? 250(6) A New Global Boom? 256(10) AFTERWORD Deepening Turbulence? 266(79) Appendices I. Profit Rates and Productivity Growth 345(8) Sources for Main Variables 349(4) Index 353