Navarro, Peter

When the Market Moves, Will You Be Ready? : How to Profit from Major Market Events

Acknowledgments xi Introduction xiii Part One The Big Picture 1(26) 1 So You Want to Make a Million in the Stock Market 3(4) Anatomy of a Crash 4(3) 2 What's Your Wall Street "IQ"? 7(8) 3 The Four Stages of Macrowave Investing 15(12) The Four Stages of Macrowave Investing 16(1) Stage One: The Four Dynamic Factors 17(2) Stage Two: Three Key Cycles That Shape Market and Sector Trends 19(4) Stage Three: Picking Strong and Weak Stocks and Sectors 23(1) Stage Four: Using Solid Money, Risk, and Trade Management Tools to Buy, Sell, and Short Stocks 24(3) Part Two The Four Dynamic Factors 27(42) 4 Follow the Earnings Calendar! 29(8) Key Point #1: Fall into the Gap? 30(1) Key Point #2: Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News 31(1) Key Point #3: Consensus Estimates versus Whisper Numbers 32(1) Key Point #4: Sector Watch 33(1) Key Point #5: Earnings and the Broad Market Trend 33(4) 5 Follow the Macroeconomic Calendar! 37(12) Key Point #1: The Market's Major Fuel 38(1) Key Point #2: Use Macro Scenario Building 38(3) Key Point #3: Mr. Market Hates Inflation 41(1) Key Point #4: Mr. Market Hates Recession 42(1) Key Point #5: Mr. Market Hates Productivity Decreases 43(1) Key Point #6: Mr. Market (Mostly) Hates Trade Deficits 44(5) 6 Uncle Sam and the Stock Market 49(10) Key Point #1: The Tools of Monetary Policy 50(1) Key Point #2: The Fed Moves in Cycles, Not Isolated Steps 51(1) Key Point #3: Monetary Policy Ripples through the Stock Market 52(1) Key Point #4: You Can't Push on a String 53(1) Key Point #5: The Two Problems with Financing Fiscal Policy 54(1) Key Point #6: Fiscal Policy's Blunt and Irreversible Tool 55(1) Key Point #7: The Problem(s) with Tax Cuts 55(4) 7 Exogenous Shocks and the Strategy of the Macroplay 59(10) Key Point #1: The Art of the Macroplay 60(1) Key Point #2: Contractionary Oil Price Spikes 61(1) Key Point #3: War Premiums and Penalties 62(1) Key Point #4: The Terrorism Tax 63(2) Key Point #5: The Market Stain of Scandals 65(1) Key Point #6: The Role of Disruptive Technologies 66(3) Part Three The Three Key Cycles 69(46) 8 Tracking the Market and Sector Trends 71(14) Key Point #1: The Market Trends Up, Down, or Moves Sideways 72(2) Key Point #2: Individual Sectors Move Up, Down, or Move Sideways 74(1) Key Point #3: Use Exchange-Traded Funds to Track Market and Sector Trends 75(2) Key Point #4: It's Easy in Hindsight to Spot Market and Sector Trends 77(1) Key Point #5: Use the 3-Point-Break Method to Spot Changes in Trends 78(7) 9 The Business Cycle and the Stock Market Cycle 85(10) Key Point #1: The Business Cycle's Ups and Downs 86(2) Key Point #2: The Stock Market's Crystal Ball 88(1) Key Point #3: The Stock Market and Four Dynamic Factors 89(1) Key Point #4: The Profitable Patterns of Sector Rotation 90(5) 10 As the Interest Rate Cycle Turns 95(10) Key Point #1: The Four Stages of the Interest Rate Cycle 96(1) Key Point #2: Higher Interest Rates Negatively Affect the Market and Sector Trends 97(3) Key Point #3: Some Bond Market Basics 100(1) Key Point #4: The Term Structure of Interest Rates 101(4) 11 Unlocking the Mysteries of the Yield Curve 105(10) Key Point #1: Constructing the Yield Curve 106(1) Key Point #2: Shapes of the Yield Curve 107(3) Key Point #3: Some Historic Evidence of the Yield Curve's Predictive Powers 110(5) Part Four Picking Strong and Weak Stocks and Sectors 115(54) 12 It's Finger-Lickin', Stock-Pickin' Good 117(12) Key Point #1: Buy Low on the Dips, Sell High on the Peaks 118(1) Key Point #2: Buy High, Sell Higher 119(2) Key Point #3: High Volume Movers 121(1) Key Point #4: The Ratings Game 122(1) Key Point #5: Buy What You Know 123(1) Key Point #6: The Way of the Red Herring 124(1) Key Point #7: Ignore Hot Stock Tips 125(4) 13 It's Absolutely Fundamental 129(14) Key Point #1: An Efficient and Random Market? Not! 131(1) Key Point #2: Exploit Price Deviations from "Fair Value" 132(1) Key Point #3: Many Fundamental Analysts Are "Value Investors" 133(1) Key Point #4: The Fundamental Analyst's Tools 134(1) Key Point #5: Use the Internet to Simplify Your Fundamental Screening 135 Key Point #6: The Fundamental Analyst's Traps 131(8) Key Point #7: Use Both a Fundamental and Technical Analysis Screen! 139(4) 14 Technically Speaking 143(26) Key Point #1: Learn the Lingo and Underlying Psychology 144(3) Key Point #2: Price Chart Patterns Identify Trends! 147(3) Key Point #3: Some Common Chart Patterns Can Be Helpful 150(4) Key Point #4: Volume Speaks Volumes 154(1) Key Point #5: Moving Averages Clarify the Trend! 155(2) Key Point #6: The Signals of Momentum Indicators 157(2) Key Point #7: Au Contrarian! The Logic of Market Sentiment 159(1) Key Point #8: Use a Technical Screen! 160(3) Key Point #9: Some Tools Work Better Than Others, Depending on the Market Trend 163(6) Part Five Buying, Selling, and Shorting Stocks 169(50) 15 Managing Your Risk 171(10) Key Point #1: Risk Represents Both Danger and Opportunity 172(1) Key Point #2: The Three Dimensions of Risk 173(1) Key Point #3: The Myriad Sources of Risk 174(1) Key Point #4: The Reward-to-Risk Ratio 175(1) Key Point #5: Some Useful Yardsticks to Measure Risk 176(1) Key Point #6: What Does "Well Diversified" Mean? 177(1) Key Point #7: Some (More) Risk Management Rules 177(4) 16 Managing Your Money 181(14) Step #1: Calculate Your Investing Batting Average or Win% 183(1) Step #2: Determine Your Risk Capital 184(2) Step #3: Determining Your Reward-to-Risk Ratio 186(3) Step #4: Determining Your Position Limit and Position Size 189(1) Step #5: Increasing Position Sizes by Adding Units of Risk 190(5) 17 Managing Your Trades 195(12) Key Point #1: Market versus Limit Orders 196(3) Key Point #2: Set Intelligent Stop Losses-Don't Be Shaken Out! 199(1) Key Point #3: Use Trailing Stops to Lock in Profits 200(1) Key Point #4: Use Buy Stops to Play Breakouts 201(1) Key Point #5: Never Average Down a Loss 201(1) Key Point #6: Don't Churn Your Own Portfolio! 202(1) Key Point #7: Some Inside Tips 203(1) Key Point #8: David Aloyan's Top Ten Investor Psychology Tips 203(4) 18 Executing Your Trades 207(12) Key Point #1: The Three Methods to Execute Your Trades 208(1) Key Point #2: Level I versus Level II Trading 209(2) Key Point #3: The Slippage Problem with Level I Brokers 211(2) Key Point #4: Direct Access Trading Eliminates Slippage 213(2) Key Point #5: The Virtues of Programmed Ordering 215(4) Part Six Macrowave Investing in Motion 219(16) 19 Preparing for the Investing Week 221(8) The Savvy Macrowave Investor Newsletter 222(7) 20 The Stimulation of Portfolio Simulation 229(6) Key Point #1: Simulate Your Portfolio With STOCK-TRAK 230(1) Key Point #2: The Tuition Bill Always Comes Due 230(1) Key Point #3: Stop the Bleeding and Find the Right Bandage 231(1) Key Point #4: Conquer Shortaphobia 232(3) Answer Key 235(26) Answers to Questions for Chapter 1 235(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 2 235(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 3 236(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 4 237(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 5 238(2) Answers to Questions for Chapter 6 240(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 7 241(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 8 242(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 9 243(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 10 244(2) Answers to Questions for Chapter 11 246(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 12 247(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 13 248(2) Answers to Questions for Chapter 14 250(2) Answers to Questions for Chapter 15 252(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 16 253(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 17 254(2) Answers to Questions for Chapter 18 256(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 19 257(1) Answers to Questions for Chapter 20 258(3) Afterword 261(4) The Savvy Macrowave Investor Pledge 261(4) Index 265