The Determinants of Currency Crises

Introduction PART I: SOME CLUES FROM HISTORY Introduction Ending Gold Convertibility in the 1930s Coalition Bickering in Turkey, 2000-01 Meltdown in Argentina, 1991-2002 Emerging Political Patterns PART II: POLITICAL-ECONOMY CRISIS MODELS Introduction A Basic Second-Generation Model The Credibility Problem of Currency Pegs Two Types of Commitment Devices Uncertainty and the Role of Elections A Fiscal Veto Player Currency Crises and Fiscal Policy Decisions The Scope for Intra-Governmental Confict A Stochastic Fiscal Target Lobbying and Exchange Rate Stability PART III: THE ROLE OF POLITICS IN CRISIS PREDICTION Introduction Literature Survey Data Set and Empirical Strategy Country Sample and Crisis Measure The Choice of Regressors Empirical Strategy Key Findings Descriptive Statistics Political-Economy Logit Models Robustness Checks Extensions The Link between Elections and Crises The Link between Left Governments and Crises Conclusion Appendices Deriving the Supply Function Survey of Econometric Studies Data Issues Endnotes Bibliography