Innovation Diffusion and Political Control of Energy Technologies

1: Introduction.- 1.1 The applied problem.- 1.2 The methodological problem.- 1.3 The theoretical problem.- 1.4 The rationale of the study.- 1.5 Structure of the study.- I: The PET-System - A Theoretical and Methodological Approach to Innovation Diffusion and Political Control.- 2: Theoretical Approaches to Technological Change and Political Control Across Disciplines.- 2.1 Some basic concepts and definitions.- 2.1.1 Technology and related definitions.- 2.1.2 Defmitions related to political control and regulation.- 2.1.3 Multiple perspectives on technological change: A hierarchy of disciplines.- 2.1.4 Multiple models of processes of change - a formal criterion.- 2.1.5 Summary and synthesis.- 2.2 Descriptive models and the aggregate measurement of technological change, diffusion and innovation.- 2.2.1 Measurement of innovation and diffusion.- 2.2.2 Models for the representation of innovation and diffusion processes.- 2.2.3 Summary.- 2.3 Economic approaches to technological change.- 2.3.1 Simple models - linear thinking.- 2.3.2 Explanatory models of the feedback and systemic type - neo-classical vs. evolutionary theorising.- 2.3.3 Main elements of evolutionary theories of techno-economic change.- 2.3.4 Summary and assessment.- 2.4 Sociological analysis of technological change.- 2.4.1 Early sociological approaches - linear models and single factors.- 2.4.2 The ‘new’ sociology of technological change - interdependencies, networks and systems.- 2.4.3 Summary and assessment.- 2.5 Theories of political control and regulation.- 2.5.1 Linear relationships between the political and the techno-economic realm.- 2.5.2 Feedback and system thinking from a political perspective.- 2.5.3 Summary and assessment.- 2.6 Conclusions.- 2.6.1 Requirements of an integrated perspective.- 2.6.2 Existing attempts to integrate perspectives.- 2.6.3 Elements of an integrated approach.- 3: The PET- System: An Integrated Approach to Innovation Diffusion and Political Control.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Delimitation of the system and exogenous forces.- 3.3 The central object of PET: technology.- 3.4 Structures and structural changes.- 3.4.1 Changes of technological structures.- 3.4.2 Changes of economic structures.- 3.4.3 Changes of information structures.- 3.4.4 Changes of political structures.- 3.5 Actors and motivations.- 3.5.1 The underlying actor model.- 3.5.2 Actors’ decisions and links to their environment.- 3.5.3 Types of actors considered.- 3.6 Decisions and interactions.- 3.6.1 Decisions and decision arenas: innovation, adoption, policies.- 3.6.2 A typology of interactions.- 3.6.3 Institutions, institutional changes and interactions.- 3.7 System dynamics.- 3.8 Summary.- 3.8.1 Basic hypotheses.- 3.8.2 The PET-system - a useful starting point.- 4: A General Methodology for Studying Innovation Diffusion and Political Control.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 The basic steps of the general methodology.- 4.2.1 Step 1: Technology analysis.- 4.2.2 Step 2: Technological changes.- 4.2.3 Step 3: Delimitation of the system.- 4.2.4 Step 4: Structural analysis and structural evolution.- 4.2.5 Step 5: Identification of actors.- 4.2.6 Step 6: Event analysis.- 4.2.7 Step 7: Analysis of decisions and interactions.- 4.2.8 Step 8: Analysis of system dynamics.- 4.2.9 Step 9: Prospective analysis and scenario building.- 4.3 Conclusions.- II: Introduction of the Problem Area and Specification of the Methodology.- 5: Issues of Energy Supply and Cogeneration.- 5.1 Historical development of heat and power supply.- 5.1.1 Economies of scale.- 5.1.2 The political interests in energy supply.- 5.1.3 Emergence of centralised technical and organisational structures.- 5.1.4 The typical players in electricity supply.- 5.2 Recent challenges to the traditional organisation of the energy supply industries.- 5.2.1 The end of the political and strategic role.- 5.2.2 The natural monopoly debate and the claim for deregulation.- 5.2.3 The environmental discussion and energy efficiency.- 5.2.4 Options and policies for reorganising the ESI.- 5.3 CHP technology and its main dimensions (Step 1).- 5.3.1 Dimension 1: Technological issues and applications.- 5.3.2 Dimension 2: Environmental impact.- 5.3.3 Dimension 3: Micro-economics for CHP-users and suppliers.- 5.3.4 Dimension 4: Macro-and socio-economic issues.- 5.3.5 Dimension 5: Organisational and power issues.- 5.3.6 Technological alternatives for heat and electricity supply.- 5.4 Summary.- 5.4.1 CHP technology - a complex research field.- 5.4.2 Superiority, inferiority and the role of social processes.- 6: Determinants of CHP-Diffusion.- 6.1 An overview of the situation of CHP.- 6.2 General exogenous factors.- 6.3 Structural level.- 6.3.1 Technological factors.- 6.3.2 Economic factors.- 6.3.3 Institutional and organisational factors.- 6.3.4 Political factors.- 6.4 Behavioural level.- 6.4.1 Informational barriers and competencies.- 6.4.2 Attitudes of actors, actions and interactions.- 6.4.3 Case-studies on investment in energy efficiency and CHP.- 6.5 Policy recommendations.- 6.5.1 Recommendations at structural level.- 6.5.2 Recommendations at behavioural level.- 6.6 Missing pieces.- 6.7 Summary.- 7: Methodological Transfer - From the General Approach to the Empirical Investigation.- 7.1 Specification of the basic hypotheses.- 7.1.1 Co-evolution of structures and technology (H1).- 7.1.2 Technical complementarity (H2).- 7.1.3 Behavioural hypothesis (H3).- 7.1.4 Dynamic hypothesis (H4).- 7.1.5 Control hypothesis (H5).- 7.2 Focus of interest and comparative methodology.- 7.2.1 On the usefulness of a comparative methodology.- 7.2.2 Target areas.- 7.2.3 First specification: Selection of countries.- 7.2.4 Second specification: Selection of actors and cases.- 7.2.5 Third specification: Interview-based methodology.- 7.3 From theory to comparative data collection.- 7.3.1 Technological changes and innovations for CHP (Step 2).- 7.3.2 Delimitation of the system and exogenous changes (Step 3).- 7.3.3 Structures and structural changes (Step 4).- 7.3.4 Identification of actors (Step 5).- 7.3.5 Event analysis (Step 6).- 7.3.6 Analysis of decisions and interactions (Step 7).- 7.3.7 System dynamics (Step 8).- 7.3.8 Prospective analysis (Step 9).- 7.4 Issues and problems of research practice.- 7.4.1 Limitations of data sources.- 7.4.2 Constraints on the general validity of the results.- 7.5 Summary.- III: The Empirical Account: Cogeneration in the UK and Germany from the Early 80s to the Middle of the 90s.- 8: Liberalisation of Energy Supply in the UK.- 8.1 The history of cogeneration in the UK.- 8.2 The context conditions.- 8.3 Innovation patterns of CHP-technology in the UK.- 8.3.1 Technical improvements.- 8.3.2 Expectations for the future.- 8.3.3 Non-technical implications.- 8.4 Structural changes.- 8.4.1 Technological structures.- 8.4.2 Economic structures and regulatory framework.- 8.4.3 Structures for the provision of technological information.- 8.4.4 Political and regulatory structures.- 8.5 Behavioural aspects: Decisions, interactions and motivations.- 8.5.1 Political realm.- 8.5.2 Suppliers’ decisions on innovation.- 8.5.3 Users and their adoption decisions.- 8.6 The evolutionary dynamics of CHP-diffusion in the UK.- 8.7 Outlook.- 8.7.1 Scenario 1: Moderate CHP-friendly liberalisation.- 8.7.2 Scenario 2: Full application of liberal principles.- 8.7.3 Scenario 3: Political enforcement and support for CHP.- 9: Transforming the Monopoly - CHP in Germany.- 9.1 The history of cogeneration and electricity supply in Germany.- 9.2 The context conditions.- 9.3 Innovation patterns of CHP-technology in Germany.- 9.3.1 Technical improvements.- 9.3.2 Expectations for the future.- 9.3.3 Non-technical implications.- 9.4 Structural changes.- 9.4.1 Technological structures.- 9.4.2 Economic structures and regulatory framework.- 9.4.3 Structures for the provision of technological information.- 9.4.4 Political and regulatory structures.- 9.5 Behavioural aspects: Decisions, interactions and motivations.- 9.5.1 Political realm.- 9.5.2 Technology supply side.- 9.5.3 The user-side of CHP-technology: Adoption.- 9.6 The evolutionary dynamics of CHP-diffusion in Germany.- 9.7 Outlook.- 9.7.1 Scenario 1: Moderate CHP-friendly liberalisation.- 9.7.2 Scenario 2: Full application of liberal principles.- 9.7.3 Scenario 3: Political enforcement and support for CHP.- 9.8 Excursion: CHP in the New Länder.- 9.8.1 Structural developments.- 9.8.2 Developments at micro-level.- 9.8.3 Assessment and outlook.- 10: Comparison of the Developments in the UK and Germany.- 10.1 Comparison of the developments till the early Eighties.- 10.2 Differences of the context conditions.- 10.3 Differences of technological developments.- 10.4 Comparison of structures and structural changes.- 10.4.1 Technological structures.- 10.4.2 Economic structures and regulatory framework.- 10.4.3 Structures for the provision of technological information.- 10.4.4 Political and regulatory structures.- 10.5 Comparison of actors’ decisions, interactions and motivations.- 10.5.1 Political realm.- 10.5.2 Technology supply side.- 10.5.3 The user-side of CHP.- 10.6 Differences of evolutionary dynamics.- 10.7 Comparison of future perspectives.- 10.7.1 Scenario 1: Liberal framework with special attention to CHP.- 10.7.2 Scenario 2: Widest possible application of market principles.- 10.7.3 Scenario 3: Political support and enforcement of CHP.- IV: Concluding Remarks on Cogeneration, Political Control and the PET-Approach.- 11: Conclusions.- 11.1 Policy conclusions.- 11.1.1 Lessons from the cases of CHP in the UK and Germany.- 11.1.2 Requirements of a CHP-oriented framework.- 11.1.3 Policy strategies for promoting CHP.- 11.2 Methodological conclusions.- 11.2.1 The constructive character of PET.- 11.2.2 Theory-based prospective analysis: requirements and possibilities.- 11.3 Theoretical conclusions.- 11.3.1 On the usefulness of the PET-approach for structuring processes of change in socio-technical systems.- 11.3.2 Theory, hypotheses and their limitations: Arguments for a different perspective on theory.- 11.3.3 On the needs and problems of multi-disciplinary research.- 11.4 Research needs.- References.- Abbreviations.- Appendices.- Appendix 1: Deutschsprachige Zusammenfassung.- Appendix 2: Questionaire outline.- Appendix 3: List of interviews.- Appendix 4: Complementary data.- Appendix 5: Comparative summary overview.