Prediction or Prophecy?

The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences

Specificaties
Paperback, 280 blz. | Engels
Deutscher Universitätsverlag | 2006e druk, 2006
ISBN13: 9783835002234
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Juridisch :
Deutscher Universitätsverlag 2006e druk, 2006 9783835002234
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Samenvatting

Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?

Specificaties

ISBN13:9783835002234
Taal:Engels
Bindwijze:paperback
Aantal pagina's:280
Druk:2006

Inhoudsopgave

Recent performance of economic forecasts

A historical perspective on economic forecast performance

Forecast performance in natural sciences

Predictability of complex systems

Expectations and reflexiveness

Sensitive dependence on initial conditions

Experiment and simulation

Unrealistic assumption explanations

Consequences for traditional decision making

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        Prediction or Prophecy?