Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

PART I. INTRODUCTION – 1. Introduction and background – 2. Preliminaries – PART II. EXPLAINING AND FORECASTING MIGRATION – 3. Explaining migration: brief overview of selected theories – 4. Forecasting migration: selected models and methods – PART III. EXAMPLES OF BAYESIAN MIGRATION PREDICTIONS – 5. Bayesian model selection and forecast averaging – 6. Bayesian VAR modelling ‘from general to specific’ – 7. Selected approaches to discontinuities in trends – 8. Evaluation of presented forecasts of European migration – 9. Bayesian computing in practice (Contributed by Arkadiusz Wiśniowski) – PART IV. PERSPECTIVES OF FORECAST MAKERS AND USERS – 10. Extensions and limitations of migration forecasts – 11. Dealing with uncertain forecasts: A policy perspective – PART V. CONCLUSION – 12. Summary and conclusion: beyond migration forecasting – Acknowledgements – References – Subject Index – Index of Names – ANNEX A. Data sources and the preparatory work – ANNEX B. WinBUGS code used in the presented Bayesian forecasts – ANNEX C. Bayesian forecasts of selected migration flows in Europe.