Energy Policy Modeling: United States and Canadian Experiences

I The Process of Energy Policy Modeling References.- 1 Why should Energy Models Form a Significant Policy Input in an Uncertain Political World?.- References.- 2 Crash Mode Modeling: Analyzing the National Energy Plan.- 2.1 The Crash Mode.- 2.2 Positive and Negative Modeling Experiences.- 2.3 Epilogue.- 3 The Evaluation of Sponsored Research in Energy Storage.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Prioritization.- 3.3 National Techno-Economic Energy Models.- References.- 4 A Dynamic Welfare Equilibrium Framework for Projecting Energy Futures.- 4.1 Introduction and Background.- 4.2 Model Description.- 4.3 Summary.- References.- 5 Panel Discussion on Important Canadian Energy Decisions for the 1980s and Beyond.- Questions.- Prepared Statement.- Questions.- II National and Regional Energy Modeling Concepts and Methods References.- 6 A Survey of Some Energy Policy Models.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 Brief Descriptions of Some Major U.S. Energy Policy Models.- 6.3 Brief Descriptions of Some Major Canadian Energy Policy Models.- References.- 7 The Brookhaven Energy System Optimization Model: Its Variants and Uses.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 The Brookhaven Energy System Optimization Model (BESOM).- 7.3 The Brookhaven Time-Stepped Energy System Optimization Model (TESOM).- 7.4 The Market Allocation Model (MARKAL).- References.- 8 An Integrated Forecasting Model: A Progress Report.- 8.1 Introduction.- 8.2 Design and Definition of the Model.- 8.3 The Integrated Forecasting Model.- 8.4 Thumbnail Sketches of Sub-Models Provided.- 8.5 Results.- 8.6 Summary and Future Directions.- References.- 9 Network Based Regional Energy Planning Models: An Evolutionary Exposé.- 9.1 Introduction.- 9.2 Network Mapping of Supply and Demand.- 9.3 Network Representation of Supply — Distribution System.- 9.4 Investments in New Capacity.- 9.5 Typical Convex Cost Production Function.- 9.6 Summary and Conclusions.- References.- 10 The Alberta Energy Resources Allocation Model.- 10.1 Rationale and Basic Concepts.- 10.2 Model Structure and Data Base.- 10.3 Energy Resource Supply and Prices.- 10.4 Energy Demands.- 10.5 Process Economic Methodology.- 10.6 External Factors.- 10.7 Reference Case Results.- 10.8 Conclusion.- References.- 11 An Alberta Energy Planning Model.- 11.1 Model Overview.- 11.2 A Basic Supply Model.- 11.3 The Basic Model with Variable Demand.- 11.4 An Alternative Approach Using End Use Demand.- 11.5 Interfuel Substitution.- 11.6 An Initial Model.- References.- 12 Time Horizons in Energy Planning Models.- 12.1 Introduction.- 12.2 Procedures for Reducing End Effects.- 12.3 Qualitative Conclusions.- 12.4 Application to Manne’s ETA Model.- 12.5 Summary and Recommendations.- References.- 12a Appendix.- 13 How should We Compare Forecasting Models When They Differ?.- 13.1 Introduction.- 13.2 Ingredients of Comparison.- 13.3 An Example: Three Competing Models for Forecasting National Gas Exploration and Discovery.- 13.4 Evaluation of the Three Models.- 13.5 Concluding Remarks.- References.- 14 Panel Discussion on the Future of National Energy Modeling.- Questions.- III The Canadian-United States Gas Pipeline References.- 15 Canadian Perspectives on the Alaska Highway Pipeline: Modeling the Alternatives.- 15.1 The Alaska Highway Pipeline in Context.- 15.2 Economic Evaluation of Alternative Pipeline Sizes and Pressures.- 15.3 Evaluating the Costs and Benefits.- 15.4 What Next?.- 15.5 Modeling Postscript.- References.- 15a Appendix.- 15.A.1 General Description of the Models Used.- 15.A.2 Equations, Data, and Procedures.- References.- 16 Analyzing Alaskan Gas Distribution Options.- 16.1 Introduction.- 16.2 Overview of PIES.- 16.3 Scenario Specifications.- References.- IV The Problems of Financing Energy Development Projects References.- 17 Financing Canadian Energy to 1990: Some Supply Side Constraints.- 17.1 Introduction.- 17.2 OPEC and the United States.- 17.3 U.S. Energy Policy.- 17.4 The Canadian Energy Scene — A Policy Update.- 17.5 Energy Trade.- 17.6 The Economic Scenario and Energy Finances.- 17.7 The Demand for Energy Finance.- 17.8 The Impact of the Energy Sector on Financial Markets.- 17.9 Funding Practices by Energy Borrowers.- 17.10 Domestic and Foreign Savings Sources.- 17.11 Foreign Financing and the Balance of Payments.- 17.12 Size and Risk Considerations.- 17.13 Project Financing.- 17. 14 Conclusions.- References.- 18 The Demand for Funds for Energy Investment in Canada.- 18.1 Introduction.- 18.2 Capital Investment in Canada Since the Mid-1950s.- 18.3 Investment Forecasts.- 18.4 Some Methodological Considerations.- 18.5 Financing Energy Investment.- 18.6 Summary.- References.- 19 Potential Capital Cost and Financing Required for Canadian Energy Projects.- 19.1 Introduction.- 19.2 Investments of Electrical Utilities.- 19.3 Petroleum Industry Investment.- 19.4 Financing of the Petroleum Industry.- 19.5 Major Project Financing.- 19.6 Pipeline Financing.- References.