Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025

The Global Investment Returns Yearbook, an authoritative guide to historical long-run returns, launched by UBS Investment Bank Research and UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office. This edition demonstrates the combined strength of UBS and Credit Suisse as the integration of the two banks progresses, and also marks the continuity of a longstanding relationship with the authors, Professor Paul Marsh and Dr Mike Staunton of London Business School and Professor Elroy Dimson of Cambridge University.
New chapter: Corporate bonds and credit premium

Corporate bonds are a major asset class with an outstanding value of some USD 44 trillion, almost half that of the value of global equities. The return to a high interest rate environment has led many investors to re-consider the merits of corporate bond allocations. This new chapter is thus timely in presenting long run evidence on corporate bonds since the 1860s from both the US and UK. Even very high-quality corporate bonds have offered a significant credit risk premium. The premium from high-yield (or junk) bonds is appreciably higher. Yield spreads of corporate over government bonds incorporate this premium but are not a measure of the expected premium because they also encapsulate expected default losses. This special feature reports on default and recovery rates over the long haul and reviews the determinants of yield spreads and default rates. It presents evidence showing that corporate bonds are a distinct asset class. Finally, it examines whether factors can help boost corporate bond returns and provide positive premia.

The UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook covers 35 markets and five composite indexes, i.e. the world, the world ex-US, Europe, developed markets and emerging markets. Twenty-three of the countries and all five composite indexes start in 1900. The other 12 markets start later than 1900, but have long histories ranging from 48 to 73 years. This chapter describes each of the markets and composite indexes, providing charts and tables summarizing the historical performance of stocks, bonds, bills, inflation and currencies.