Introduction to Demographic Analysis

1 Basic Principles of Cohort Analysis.- 1.1. Fundamental Concepts.- 1.1.1. Event-Origin; Cohort.- 1.1.2. Bounds.- 1.1.3. Time References.- 1.1.4. Lexis Diagram.- 1.1.5. Durations.- 1.1.6. Related Problems.- 1.1.7. Examples.- 1.1.7.1. Lexis Diagram.- 1.1.7.2. Types of Ages.- 1.2. Basic Principles in the Absence of Disturbances.- 1.2.1. Renewable Events.- 1.2.1.1. Introduction.- 1.2.1.2. Average Intensity and Average Duration.- 1.2.1.3. Reduced Events.- 1.2.2. Nonrenewable Events.- 1.2.2.1. Introduction.- 1.2.2.2. Average Intensity.- 1.2.2.3. Average Duration.- 1.2.3. Other Characteristics.- 1.2.4. Probability of Attrition.- 1.2.5. Attrition Table.- 1.2.6. Probabilities between Completed Durations.- 1.2.7. Exposure Rates.- 1.2.8. Relations between Exposure Rates and Attrition Probabilities.- 1.2.9. Final Comments.- 1.2.10. Examples.- 1.2.10.1. A Cohort without Disturbances.- 1.2.10.2. Relations between Rates and Probabilities.- 1.3. Basic Principles in the Presence of Disturbances.- 1.3.1. Types of Demographic Processes.- 1.3.2. Absence of Population Exclusion.- 1.3.2.1. Renewable Events.- 1.3.2.2. Nonrenewable Events.- 1.3.2.3. Use of Census-Type Data.- 1.3.3. Phenomena Excluding Population from Observation.- 1.3.4. Final Comments.- 1.3.5. Examples.- 1.3.5.1. Attrition Probabilities.- 1.3.5.2. Exposure Rates.- 1.3.5.3. Reduced Events.- 1.3.5.4. Comparison of Results.- 1.4. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 2 Basic Principles of Period Analysis.- 2.1. The Double Purpose of Period Analysis.- 2.1.1. Population Structures.- 2.1.2. Standardization and Translation.- 2.2. The Standardization Approach and the Problem of Summary Indexes.- 2.2.1. Direct Standardization.- 2.2.2. Frequency Averaging.- 2.2.3. Principal Components Analysis.- 2.2.4. Crude Rates; Indirect Standardization.- 2.2.5. Double Standardization Techniques.- 2.3. The Translation Approach.- 2.3.1. The Fictitious Cohort Method.- 2.3.2. Distributional Distortion and Translation Models.- 2.3.3. The Identification Problem.- 2.4. Population Structures and Movement.- 2.4.1. Generalized Period Frequencies.- 2.4.2. Period Frequencies, Rates, and Reduced Events.- 2.5. Examples.- 2.5.1. Types of Rates.- 2.5.2. The Problem of Summary Indexes.- 2.5.3. Direct Standardization.- 2.5.4. Indirect Standardization.- 2.5.5. Distributional Distortion.- 2.5.6. The Population Pyramid.- 2.6. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 3 The Analysis of Mortality.- 3.1. Infant Mortality.- 3.1.1. The Infant Mortality “Rate”.- 3.1.2. Endogenous and Exogenous Infant Mortality…..- 3.1.3. Examples.- 3.1.3.1. Types of Infant Mortality “Rates”.- 3.1.3.2. Endogenous and Exogenous Infant Mortality.- 3.2. Period Measures of Mortality.- 3.2.1. The Standardization Approach.- 3.2.1.1. Crude Death “Rate”.- 3.2.1.2. Age-Sex-Specific Period Frequencies or Rates.- 3.2.1.3. Death Rates by Age Groups.- 3.2.1.4. Standardized Death Rates.- 3.2.1.5. Examples.- 3.2.2. The Translation Approach: The Period Life Table.- 3.2.2.1. The Life-Table Functions.- 3.2.2.2. Life-Table Functions for the Last Age Interval.- 3.2.2.3. Mortality by Cause of Death.- 3.2.2.4. Abridged Life Tables.- 3.2.2.5. Model Life Tables.- 3.2.2.6. Examples.- 3.3. Some Comments on Cohort Measures of Mortality.- 3.4. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 4 The Analysis of Nuptiality.- 4.1. Analysis Based on Statistics of Population Change.- 4.1.1. Period Analysis.- 4.1.1.1. Standardization.- 4.1.1.2. Translation.- 4.1.2. Cohort Analysis.- 4.1.2.1. FirstMarriage.- 4.1.2.2. Marriage Dissolution and Remarriage.- 4.1.3. Examples.- 4.1.3.1. The Period First Marriage Table.- 4.1.3.2. Period Reduced First Marriages.- 4.1.3.3. Average Number of Divorces per Couple.- 4.2. Analysis Based on Census-Type Data.- 4.2.1. Use of Retrospective Questions.- 4.2.2. Use of Population Structures by Marital Status.- 4.2.2.1. Proportions of Never-Married Persons.- 4.2.2.2. Proportions of Ever-Married Persons.- 4.2.3. Example.- 4.3. The “Marriage Market” Problem.- 4.4. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 5 The Analysis of Natality.- 5.1. Crude Measures of Natality.- 5.1.1. Natality and Fertility.- 5.1.2. Period Crude Birth “Rate”.- 5.1.3. Period General Fertility “Rate”.- 5.2. Age-Specific Fertility.- 5.2.1. Types of Age-Specific “Rates”.- 5.2.1.1. General, Legitimate, and Illegitimate “Rates”.- 5.2.1.2. “Rates” by Age and by Age Groups.- 5.2.1.3. “Rates” by Age and Birth Order.- 5.2.2. Age-Specific “Rates” in Cohort Analysis.- 5.2.2.1. Age-Specific General Fertility “Rates”.- 5.2.2.2. Census-Type Data on Births by Age of Mother.- 5.2.2.3. Legitimate and Illegitimate Fertility.- 5.2.3. Age-Specific “Rates” in Period Analysis.- 5.2.3.1. Standardization.- 5.2.3.2. Translation.- 5.2.4. Gross and Net Reproduction “Rates”.- 5.2.5. Indirect Standardization of Age-Specific Fertility.- 5.2.6. Examples.- 5.2.6.1. General, Legitimate, and Illegitimate “Rates”.- 5.2.6.2. Indirect Standardization of Fertility: Coale’sMethod.- 5.3. Marriage-Duration-SpecificFertility.- 5.3.1. Marriage-Duration-Specific Fertility “Rates”.- 5.3.1.1. Cohort Analysis.- 5.3.1.2. Period Analysis.- 5.3.2. Census-Type Data on Fertility by Marriage Duration.- 5.3.2.1. Children Ever-Born by Duration of Marriage.- 5.3.2.2. Children Ever-Born by Duration of Marriage and Age at Marriage.- 5.3.3. Examples.- 5.3.3.1. Parity Progression Ratios in a Marriage-Cohort, Computed from Vital Statistics.- 5.3.3.2. Parity Progression Ratios in a Marriage-Cohort, Computed from Census Data.- 5.3.3.3. Average Number of Children per Couple.- 5.4. Birth-Interval-Specific Fertility.- 5.4.1. Birth-Interval-Specific Fertility “Rates”.- 5.4.1.1. Cohort Analysis.- 5.4.1.2. Period Analysis.- 5.4.2. Census-Type Data on Birth Intervals.- 5.4.3. Examples.- 5.4.3.1. Birth Intervals and Duration of Marriage.- 5.4.3.2. Period Parity Progression Ratios.- 5.5. Measures of Natural Fertility and Contraceptive Effectiveness.- 5.5.1. Measures of Natural Fertility.- 5.5.1.1. Natural Fertility.- 5.5.1.2. Fecundability.- 5.5.1.3. Nonsusceptible Period.- 5.5.1.4. Fetal Mortality.- 5.5.1.5. Sterility.- 5.5.2. Measures of Contraceptive Effectiveness.- 5.5.2.1. Malthusian Fertility.- 5.5.2.2. Use-Effectiveness of Contraception.- 5.5.3. Examples.- 5.5.3.1. Monthly “Effective” Fecundabilities.- 5.5.3.2. Proportion of Sterile Couples.- 5.5.3.3. Malthusian and Non-Malthusian Fertility.- 5.5.3.4. Measures of Contraceptive Effectiveness.- 5.6. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- 6 The Analysis of Migration.- 6.1. Time and Space in Migration Analysis.- 6.1.1. Introduction.- 6.1.2. Definitions.- 6.2. Spatial Demographic Accounting.- 6.3. Direct Estimation of Migration.- 6.3.1. The Population Register.- 6.3.2. TheCensus.- 6.3.3. Other Sources.- 6.4. Indirect Estimation of Migration.- 6.4.1. The Place of Birth Method.- 6.4.2. The Vital Statistics Method.- 6.4.3. The Probability of Survival or “Survival Ratio” Method.- 6.4.3.1. Forward, Reverse, and Average Methods.- 6.4.3.2. The Problem of the Temporal Distribution of Migration Flows.- 6.4.3.3. The Problem of Differential Mortality between Migrants and Nonmigrants.- 6.4.3.4. Estimation of the Probabilities of Survival.- 6.5. Intensity of Migration.- 6.5.1. The Migration Rate.- 6.5.2. The Multiregional Multiple-Decrement Life Table.- 6.5.3. Cohort Analysis: Intensity and Tempo.- 6.5.3.1. Direct Estimation.- 6.5.3.2. Indirect Estimation.- 6.6. Spatial Orientation of Migration.- 6.7. Efficiency of Migration.- 6.8. Examples.- 6.8.1. Direct Estimation of Migration.- 6.8.2. The Place of Birth Method.- 6.8.3. The Vital Statistics and Survival Ratio Methods.- 6.8.4. Intensity of Migration: Rates and Expected Numbers.- 6.8.5. Intensity of Migration: Rank of Migration.- 6.8.6. Spatial Orientation and Efficiency.- 6.9. References and Supplementary Bibliography.- Append.- Table A.1. Set of Coefficients for Ledermann’s Model Life Tables (BothSexes).- Table A.2. Schedules of Divorce by Duration of Marriage 269.- Table A.3. Standard Set of Ratios of Probabilities of Survival of Total Population (Ever-Married or Not) to Population Single at ExactAges.- Table A.4. Standard Marital Fertility Schedule of Hutterite Women (1921–1930).- Table A.5. Standard Schedule of Births by Duration of Marriage.- Table A.6. Standard Fertility Schedules by Birth Interval (for Low Fertility LF and High Fertility HF Populations).