On Global Aging

1 Introductory observations.- 1.1 A growing older society.- 1.2 The pension burden.- 1.3 Societal issues.- 1.4 Budgetary issues.- 2 Demography.- 2.1 Introductory observations.- 2.1.1 Uncertainty of projections.- 2.2 Population projections.- 2.2.1 Population in the developed countries.- 2.2.2 Population in the developing countries.- 2.2.3 Towards an older population.- 2.2.4 Old-age dependency.- 2.2.5 Towards a shrinking (and older) working age population.- 2.3 Demographic transition.- 2.3.1 Different patterns of aging.- 2.3.2 Aging, a feminist issue.- 2.3.3 Falling fertility rates.- 2.3.4 Longevity.- 2.4 Final observations.- 3 The impact of an aging population on the economy.- 3.1 Aging and capital formation.- 3.1.1 Increasing capital intensity.- 3.2 Aging and labour supply.- 3.3 The impact of aging on the performance of the economy.- 3.3.1 Single-country general equilibrium models.- 3.3.2 Multi-country general equilibrium models.- 3.3.3 Concluding observations.- 3.3.4 Productivity growth the most important factor.- 3.3.5 Remaining research questions.- 3.4 Final observations.- 4 Can the world population grow older comfortably ?.- 4.1 Scenarios of the demographic transition in developed countries.- 4.1.1 Aging and the labour market.- 4.1.2 Aging and the capital market.- 4.1.3 Labour force participation.- 4.1.4 Labour force productivity.- 4.1.5 Alternative scenarios.- 4.1.6 Decomposition.- 4.2 Scenarios of the demographic transition in developing countries.- 4.2.1 Demographic dividend.- 4.2.2 Alternative scenarios.- 4.3 Can the world population grow older comfortably?.- 4.3.1 Basic economics.- 4.3.2 Aging and welfare in the 21 st centuiy.- 4.3.3 Strain on political, social and economic systems.- 4.3.4 Alternative productivity growth rates.- 4.3.5 Required productivity growth to maintain welfare.- 4.4 Spending on welfare and intergenerational ethics.- 4.4.1 Concluding observations.- 5 A paradox.- 5.1 The budgetary issue.- 5.1.1 The budgetary issue - public pensions.- 5.1.2 The budgetary issue - health and long-term care.- 5.1.3 Aging, longevity and health care expenditures.- 5.2 A paradox.- 5.2.1 The method of pension finance - on a micro or personal level.- 5.2.2 The method of pension finance - on a macro or national level.- 5.2.3 The ownership of pension capital.- 5.2.4 No controversy between workers and pensioners.- 5.2.5 (Partial) shift from pay-as-you-go to funding.- 5.2.6 Pitfalls: the public versus private issue.- 5.3 Concluding observations.- 6 Policies in the face of aging.- 6.1 Introductory observations.- 6.2 Policy measures to enlarge the contribution or resource base.- 6.2.1 Shifting factor scarcity.- 6.2.2 Provisos.- 6.3 The impact of reform policy measures.- 6.3.1 Feedback mechanisms.- 6.3.2 Required labour force participation to maintain welfare.- 6.3.3 Policy measures in respect of pensions.- 6.3.4 Different views of the European Commission.- 6.3.5 Choosing a pension plan, ‘the third road’.- 6.3.6 Immigration.- 6.3.7 Required immigration to maintain welfare.- 6.3.8 Investing abroad.- 6.3.9 Towards active aging.- 6.4 Long-run trends.- 6.4.1 Social cohesion.- 6.4.2 A society for all ages.- 6.4.3 Concluding observations.- 7. Summarizing and concluding remarks.- Abstract.- References.- Appendix A. Methodology.- Appendix B. Alternative scenarios.- Appendix C. Relative merits of pay-as-you-go and funding systems.- Appendix D. Neo-classical economics in a growing older environment.- Appendix E. Aging in the Netherlands.- Appendix F. An optimal and preferred EU-15 pension reform strategy.- Appendix G. Demography in the EU-15 countries.